How Can You Surprise Them? ( Game Theory & Surprise Strategy)

Remember the famous 2006 football world cup quarter final match between England and Portugal, the nail biting match was decided on penalty shootout. Portuguese goalie guessed correctly every time and saved three of the kicks, which clinched the victory for his team.

 Have you imagined what strategy goes behind judging the direction of penalty kicks? The reaction time is just a fraction of a second and the goalie has to decide which direction to dive.

Some very interesting insights to this is given by Game Theory , as per a famous book – “Art of Strategy- by Avinash K Dixit & Barry J” –  Imagine you are about to shoot a penalty kick in soccer. Do you shoot to the goalie’s left or right? Suppose some consideration—your being left-footed versus right-footed, the goalie being left-handed versus right-handed, or which side you chose the last time you took a penalty kick—suggests that you should choose left. If the goalie is able to think through this thinking, then he will mentally and even physically prepare to cover that side, so you will do better by choosing his right instead. But what if the goalie raises his level of thinking one notch? Then you would have done better by sticking to the initial idea of kicking to his left. And so on. Where does it end? 

 The only logically valid deduction in such situations is that if you follow any system or pattern in your choices, it will be exploited by the other player to his advantage and to your disadvantage; therefore you should not follow any such system or pattern. If you are known to be a left-side kicker, goalies will cover that side better and save your kicks more often. You have to keep them guessing by being unsystematic, or random, on any single occasion.

 If your strategy is unique or has an element of surprise then you can beat even the best. In 1973 Toyota proved this to the car manufacturers of America. Toyota was able to sell their cars at much lower rates than American manufacturers. Americans imposed additional taxes on them so that their rates are equal or higher than American brands. 

The term “Continuous Improvement” was coined by Toyota and they spent years studying the production lines of American car makers such as Ford. They knew that the US car industry was more advanced and more efficient than the Japanese one. So they waited. Japanese shifted their manufacturing base to America. The local manufacturers thought that now the Japanese cost will be similar to them. They studied their competitors and tried to copy what the Americans did so well. They blended these processes with the strengths of their own, and came up with something even better. 

Toyota proved that knowing their own weaknesses can be the key to success – and be one of the best business strategies you can ever deploy.

Elements of surprise and continuous improvement are two hallmarks of a good strategy. Let them guess your next move, catch them napping, go for the kill. Small , big all businesses can achieve this.

Vikas Marwaha