Have you ever tried a surprise attack strategy with your competitors? What is your thought process, when you design such an attack strategy? Well, most of us fall into a trap called “Mirror Image Bias”, to make it simple we think that whatever our thought process is, the opponent will strategise or behave in a similar manner, i.e. we underassume ( or sometimes overassume) the capabilities of our opponents.
Due to Mirror Image Bias, cricket fans and pundits have often compared Sachin Tendulkar to Sir Don Bradman in terms of their exceptional batting averages. This comparison assumes that Tendulkar should mirror Bradman’s legendary average, creating unrealistic expectations for his performance. Both were in different eras and with different playing styles and that too against different bowlers.
Most of us have heard/ read about the “Pearl Harbour Attack” but not many know that the American commander during the attack on Pearl Harbor was Admiral Husband E. Kimmel and he was a victim of “Mirror Image Bias”. Pearl Harbour (in the Pacific Ocean) was considered to be one of the safest places and Americans, particularly Admiral Kimmel believed that no one could attack them there. The reason for this belief was that the distance between Japan and Pearl Harbor was approximately 4,000 miles. The shortest distance between the two locations was 3,844.76 miles. Admiral Kimmel always felt that Japan didn’t have the resources to cover such a distance without being detected and attacked by Americans. But we all know that he was wrong and he was caught napping.
Admiral Yamamoto was the commander in chief of Japan’s Combined Fleet. He planned the attack on the US Pacific Fleet. He believed that a long war with the United States would be disastrous for Japan. He ordered his staff to plan a carrier-based aerial attack on Pearl Harbor. The Japanese planned a Carrier based attack, rather than a direct air attack. This strategy was totally missed by Americans, who because of their bias always believed that Japan did not have the capability.
The Japanese aircraft flew in two waves. The first wave attacked airfields and anti-air defences on the west side of the island. The second wave struck at 8:50 AM and the Japanese withdrew shortly after 9:45 AM. In just over an hour, the Japanese destroyed more than 180 aircraft and destroyed or damaged more than a dozen ships. More than 2,400 U.S. military members and civilians were killed. The interesting part is that even after detecting (a big blip on their radar) the fighter planes Americans believed that they were their own planes as they had this belief anchored into their heads that no one could attack Pearl Harbour.
The surprise attack on Pearl Harbor by the Japanese led the United States to enter World War II.
We tend to fall to “Mirror Image Bias” in our day-to-day lives, and some of the most common impacts that can impact your decisions are
1. Knowing Your Customers: When you want to sell something, it’s not enough to think that everyone is like you. People are different, so you need to learn about them and understand what they like and need.
2. Talking to Customers: When you talk to people about buying something, don’t use the same words or ways you like. Use words and ways that they like and understand.
3. Making New Things: If you’re making something new, don’t assume that everyone wants what you like. Ask many people what they want and make your thing based on what they say.
4. Writing Ads and Stuff: When you write ads or things to show to people, don’t use jokes or words that only you find funny. Use words and ideas that most people will like and understand.
5. Selling Stuff: When you’re talking to people to sell something, don’t always use the same way to sell to everyone. Some people like one way, and some like another. Find out what works best for each person.
6. What People Need: Don’t think that what you need is what everyone else needs. Different people have different problems and goals. You need to know what each person needs.
7. Looking at Other Companies: When you look at other companies who are like your company, don’t think that what works for them will work for you. They are not the same as you. Look carefully and see what you can learn from them.
8. Making Decisions: When you make important decisions, don’t just think about what you like. Ask other people and think about what’s best for everyone.
To avoid making mistakes in your sales and marketing, make sure you listen to your customers, use words and ideas they understand, and think about what’s good for everyone, not just what’s good for you.
Vikas Marwaha – Business Strategist
Yes very true I also believe that before taking any decision take the suggestion of others whether it is personal or professional.